Economic growth and structural transformation: unresolved problems of theory and practice

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Abstract

The paper considers the problem of organizing a new model of economic growth in Russia with an assessment of structural transformation. Economic growth in 2023–2024 showed an increase in the contribution to the dynamics of the investment expenditure component, which creates a good prerequisite for changing the model of structural dynamics of GDP growth. At the same time, the economic structure is subject to minor transformation, or there is none. The issue of the relationship between the growth rate and structural changes can be considered unresolved either in theory or in practice. The purpose of the study is to conduct a structural analysis of economic growth in Russia in the period 2000–2023 with the identification of basic changes in the structure of sectors, GDP components, in order to update unresolved problems of theoretical and applied purpose and outline an approach to their resolution within the framework of the relationship between growth and structure. The methodology of the study is based on the modern theory of economic growth and structural dynamics, elements of structural, regression and empirical analysis. The information base of the article is Rosstat data. The result of the work can be considered the provisions confirmed during the analysis that economic growth in Russia was not determined by structural changes in the economic base – the sectors of means of production and consumer goods, as well as the transaction, manufacturing and raw materials sectors. Growth was slowed down by the dominance of the financial sector, a disproportionate increase in investment in financial assets relative to a similar indicator in non-financial assets. The structural dynamics of GDP also confirms that the investment model of growth emerged only in 2023, since gross accumulation in this year provided the greatest contribution to the growth rate relative to other components of the gross product. The general conclusion is that the conditions for fixing the investment growth model, with the dominance of the transaction sector and the compressed development of the means of production, with the implementation of a rigid monetary policy – may not be preserved, may not develop, since there are no planned measures for structural policy that are designed to influence the established proportions and dynamics of the elements of the system. These aspects should form the prospect for planning and solving unresolved state problems.

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About the authors

Oleg Sukharev

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); Lomonosov Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosov

Author for correspondence.
Email: o_sukharev@list.ru

Grand Ph.D. in Economics, Professor, Chief researcher; Professor of the Department of Theory and Methodology of State and Municipal Administration, Faculty of Public Administration

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Structure of Russia's GDP by sectors, 2004–2023. Source: author's calculations based on Rosstat data, http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/accounts/#, 2003–2011 in 2008 prices, 2012–2022 in 2016 prices, 2023 in 2021 prices.

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3. Fig. 2. Structure of Russia’s GDP by expenditure, 2002–2023. Source: author’s calculation based on Rosstat data, http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/accounts/#

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4. Fig. 3. Investments in financial and non-financial assets, 2000–2023, billion rubles in 2005 prices. Source: calculated by the author based on Rosstat data, https://www.gks.ru/investment_nonfinancial, https://www.gks.ru/folder/14476; https://www.gks.ru/storage/mediabank/tab1(2).htm

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5. Fig. 4. Share of the capital goods and consumer goods sector in Russia’s GDP, 2011–2022, % Source: author’s calculation based on Rosstat data, http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/accounts/#, in 2016 prices.

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6. Fig. 5. Russia’s GDP growth rate from the structure of employed personnel in the sectors of capital goods and consumer goods (Lp/Lc), 2011–2022. Source: Rosstat, https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts; EMISS, https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/57848.

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7. Fig. 6. GDP growth rate from the ratio of investment in fixed capital in the sectors of means of production and consumer goods (Ip/Ic) in Russia, 2011–2022. Source: calculated by the author, Rosstat https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts, EMISS: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/57848.

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8. Fig. 7. Russia's GDP, financial and non-financial investments, in 2005 prices, billion rubles, 2000–2022. Source: calculated by the author based on Rosstat data, https://www.gks.ru/investment_nonfinancial, https://www.gks.ru/folder/14476; https://www.gks.ru/storage/mediabank/tab1(2).htm.

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9. Fig. 8. Russia’s GDP growth rate from institutional bias (γ0), 2000–2022. Source: calculated by the author based on Rosstat data, https://www.gks.ru/investment_nonfinancial, https://www.gks.ru/folder/14476; https://www.gks.ru/storage/mediabank/tab1(2).htm.

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10. Fig. 9. Institutional bias (γ0) from investments in financial and non-financial assets (investments in 2005 prices, billion rubles), 2000–2022. Source: calculated by the author based on Rosstat data, https://www.gks.ru/investment_nonfinancial, https://www.gks.ru/folder/14476; https://www.gks.ru/storage/mediabank/tab1(2).htm.

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